THE WORLD AFTER GAME SERIES

But there have been more sweeps (12.5 percent of 105 is about 13, so we would have expected to see 13 World Series end in sweeps rather than the 21 sweeps that have actually occurred), fewer 3–1 Series, and fewer six-game Series than theoretically should have occurred between evenly matched teams. This suggests that the teams that compete in the World Series are usually evenly matched. First, with three exceptions, the actual and expected probabilities are pretty close given the relatively small sample size. A couple of interesting points can be made by comparing the expected probabilities in column four to the actual percentages in column three. Relatively straight-forward statistical analysis (see for details) gives the expected probabilities of possible game situations assuming each team has a 50 percent chance of winning each game. The information in the last column of Table 1 is not directly related to the main point of this article but is included for informational purposes. Twenty-three percent of the Series finished at 4–2 and just over one-third of the Series stood 3–3 before the decisive Game Seven. About 23 percent of the Series finished at 4–1 while 57 percent stood at 3–2. One-fifth of the Series have been sweeps. Moving on to the fourth game of the Series, it seems mildly surprising that more Series (43 total or 41 percent) have been at 3–1 than have been at 2–2 (41 total or 39 percent) but the result is consistent with the expected probabilities for evenly matched teams. Slightly over three-quarters of the Series have stood at 2–1 while just under one-quarter of the Series started 3–0. Table 1 shows that just over half the Series have stood at 1–1 while just under half have stood at 2–0.

Table 1: Historic World Series Game Situations How often have all the possible configurations of progressive won-loss combinations (“game situations”) occurred during the 105 seven-game World Series that have been played to date? The results are shown in Table 1. This leaves a total of 105 seven-game Series in the data set since there was no World Series in 1904 or 1994. The best-of-nine Series played in 19–21 are not included in the analysis.

The historical data used to generate the probabilities is based on seven-game World Series only, starting with the 1905 World Series. The probability of winning in these and other possible game situations will be answered by examining what’s happened historically in the World Series. Louis did, or 1–2 as Boston did? What if you’re ahead or behind two games to none? For example, what is the actual probability of winning if you fall behind 0–1 as St. The purpose of this article is to examine the probabilities of winning the World Series for all possible game combinations. Louis in October 2013, as that is exactly what happened to the Cardinals before the Red Sox won three in a row to take the World Series. Now how confident are you? Should you buy expensive champagne in anticipation of a World Series victory since you just won two in a row? Let’s hope you didn’t spend too much on the bubbly if you lived in St.

There is a general perception among many baseball fans that losing the first game of a seven-game series is not a big setback, but is this fact or an unsubstantiated belief? Let’s say after the initial loss, they win the next two games to take a 2–1 lead in the series. You’re ecstatic that your favorite team won the League Championship Series to get into the World Series, but your pitching ace performs poorly and the team loses Game One.

The world after game